Trading Expectancy Calculator
Find out if your trading strategy has a real edge. Enter your win rate and average win/loss to see expected profit per trade.
Inputs
How to Calculate Trading Expectancy
Expectancy tells you exactly how much you can expect to make (or lose) per trade over time. It's the single most important number in trading — more important than win rate alone. A 40% win rate can be highly profitable if your average win is large enough relative to your average loss.
The formula is simple: multiply your win rate by your average win, then subtract your loss rate times your average loss. The result is your expected value per trade. Positive means your strategy makes money over time. Negative means it doesn't — no matter how clever it feels.
Most traders obsess over win rate while ignoring expectancy. A 70% win rate with $100 average wins and $300 average losses has negative expectancy. You win more often but lose more when you lose. Meanwhile, a 35% win rate with $500 average wins and $100 average losses is highly profitable. This calculator shows you the difference instantly.
To calculate reliably, you need at least 30-50 trades of data. Fewer than that and random variance can make a losing strategy look profitable (or vice versa). Track every trade in a journal, then plug the numbers in here to see if your edge is real.
Formula
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Average Win) − (Loss Rate × Average Loss)
Example
Your last 100 trades: 45 winners averaging $350 each, 55 losers averaging $180 each.
Win rate = 45%. Average win = $350. Average loss = $180.
Expectancy = (0.45 × $350) − (0.55 × $180) = $157.50 − $99.00 = $58.50 per trade.
At 40 trades/month: $58.50 × 40 = $2,340/month expected profit.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a good trading expectancy?
Any positive expectancy is good — it means your strategy makes money over time. Professional traders typically aim for $0.20-$1.00+ of expectancy per dollar risked. The key is consistency: a small positive expectancy compounded over hundreds of trades builds real wealth.
How many trades do I need to calculate reliable expectancy?
At minimum 30 trades, ideally 100+. With fewer trades, random luck can make a losing strategy appear profitable. The more trades in your sample, the more confidence you can have that your calculated expectancy reflects your true edge.
Can expectancy change over time?
Yes. Market conditions change, your skills evolve, and strategies degrade. Recalculate expectancy monthly or quarterly. If a previously profitable strategy shows declining expectancy, it may need adjustment or retirement.
Is win rate or risk/reward ratio more important?
Neither alone matters — only their combination (expectancy) matters. A high win rate with poor risk/reward can lose money. A low win rate with excellent risk/reward can be very profitable. This calculator shows you the combined effect.
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Disclaimer: This calculator is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.