Day Trading Simulator
Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000+ scenarios. See the realistic distribution of outcomes based on your actual win rate and risk parameters.
Monte Carlo Trading Simulator
How the Monte Carlo Day Trading Simulator Works
This simulator runs your trading parameters through 1,000+ random scenarios to show you the realistic distribution of outcomes. Instead of a single projection, you see the full range of what could happen — best case, worst case, and everything in between.
Enter your starting capital, win rate, average win size, average loss size, and number of trades per simulation. The Monte Carlo engine randomizes the sequence of wins and losses across hundreds of simulations, plotting every equity curve on a single chart.
The spread between the top and bottom curves shows your variance — how much luck affects your results over that number of trades. Wide spreads mean high variance. Narrow spreads mean your edge dominates. This is the closest thing to seeing your trading future before it happens.
Formula
Each simulation: for N trades, randomly assign win (probability = win rate) or loss, then apply the gain/loss to the running balance. Repeat 100-1,000 times.
Example
Starting capital: $25,000. Win rate: 55%. Average win: $400. Average loss: $250. Trades: 200.
After running 500 simulations, the median outcome is ~$38,000 (+52%). The top 10% of simulations end above $48,000. The bottom 10% end below $28,000. About 3% of simulations show a net loss despite a positive edge.
This tells you: with these exact parameters, you'll almost certainly be profitable over 200 trades — but the exact outcome varies by ±$20,000 depending on the sequence of wins and losses.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Monte Carlo simulation in trading?
Monte Carlo simulation runs your trading strategy through thousands of randomized scenarios. Each simulation uses the same parameters (win rate, risk, etc.) but randomizes the order of wins and losses. The result shows you the probability distribution of outcomes — not just a single projection.
How many simulations should I run?
At least 100 for a rough picture, 500-1,000 for statistical confidence. More simulations give you a clearer picture of the tail risks (rare but extreme outcomes). This calculator lets you run up to 100 simultaneous simulations.
Why do some simulations lose money even with a positive edge?
Because short-term results are dominated by variance (luck), not edge. Over 50 trades, a 55% win rate can easily produce 40% or fewer wins by random chance. Over 500+ trades, the edge dominates and losing outcomes become statistically rare.
How do I get my win rate and average win/loss for the simulator?
From your trading journal. Track at least 50 trades, record wins and losses, then calculate: Win Rate = wins ÷ total trades. Average Win = sum of winning trades ÷ number of wins. Average Loss = sum of losing trades ÷ number of losses.
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Disclaimer: This calculator is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.